Forget the Doom: Republicans Are Keeping the House and Senate

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3. That’s less than three weeks from today. So let me just say it plainly, so there’s no confusion about where I stand:

We’re going to win. Republicans are going to keep the Senate, and we’re going to keep the House.

I know, I know. You’ve heard the doom from the pundits. Let’s talk about it.

Where things stand

Right now, as the BBC (opens in a new tab) lays out, Republicans hold 53 of the 100 Senate seats. Democrats have 45, plus two independents who vote with them. In the House, our majority is thin. Every one of the 435 House seats is on the ballot, along with 35 Senate seats.

And yes, the folks at EY (opens in a new tab) and everybody else will remind you that the president’s party typically loses seats in a midterm. That’s history. It’s also not a law of physics. History is just what happened when people didn’t show up to change it.

Why I’m confident

First, look at the Senate map. To take the Senate, Democrats would have to flip four seats and hold everything they’ve got, and as EY notes, that likely means winning in states President Trump carried in 2024. I like our odds on that map. A lot.

Second, we have a record to run on, and it’s a good one. CBP (opens in a new tab) just announced the lowest fiscal-year border apprehensions in its history, with 17 straight months of zero Border Patrol releases. The tax law is letting businesses invest and build here at home. The nuclear industry is waking up. The Navy is asking for real money to build real ships. When people ask, “What did you do with the majority?” we have answers.

Third, and this is the big one: the other side doesn’t have an agenda. They have a grudge. Being against Donald Trump isn’t a plan for your grocery bill or your kid’s school or your town’s factory. Voters can feel the difference between people who are building something and people who are just mad.

Don’t you dare blackpill

I see too many folks on our side scrolling themselves into despair. Every bad poll, every scary headline, every “the sky is falling” thread. Stop it. Seriously. Despair is a choice, and it’s the one choice that guarantees we lose.

The other side wants you discouraged. A discouraged voter stays home. A hopeful voter brings three friends to the polls. Be the hopeful one.

What you can actually do

Here’s my homework for you over the next 18 days:

• Make a plan to vote, and check your state’s early voting and mail rules so you aren’t surprised.
• Pick five people you know who agree with you but sometimes skip midterms. Text them. Call them. Drive them if you have to.
• Give an hour to your local campaign. Knock doors, make calls, put out signs.
• Pray. For the country, for the candidates, and for the people who disagree with us.

The bottom line

In that 2019 State of the Union (opens in a new tab), the President said, “Victory is not winning for our party. Victory is winning for our country.” That’s exactly what this November is about. Keeping the House and Senate means two more years of the America First agenda moving forward instead of grinding to a halt.

So chin up. Get to work. And get ready to celebrate on November 3.

We’re going to win.

Sources

• BBC, Where the US midterm elections will be won and lost (opens in a new tab)
• EY, Eye on the election: 2026 midterms (PDF) (opens in a new tab)
• U.S. Customs and Border Protection, preliminary FY 2026 border data (opens in a new tab)
• President Trump, State of the Union, February 5, 2019 (opens in a new tab)